Four years since Lebanon slid into a financial meltdown that marks its worst crisis since the 1975-90 civil war, parliament failed for a 12th time to elect someone to fill the post reserved for a Maronite Christian under the country’s sectarian system.

Lawmakers from the Iran-backed armed Shi’ite group Hezbollah and allies including the Shi’ite Amal Movement withdrew from the session to obstruct a bid by the main Christian parties to elect IMF official Jihad Azour.

The standoff has opened up a sectarian faultline, with one of Hezbollah’s main Christian allies – Gebran Bassil – lining up behind the bid to elect Azour, alongside anti-Hezbollah Christian factions.

Azour, the IMF’s Middle East Director and an ex-finance minister, won the support of 59 of parliament’s 128 lawmakers in an initial vote, short of the two-thirds needed to win in the first round. Suleiman Frangieh, backed by Hezbollah and its allies, got 51 votes.

Hezbollah and its allies then withdrew, denying the two-thirds quorum required for a second round of voting in which a candidate can win with the support of 65 lawmakers.

It leaves Lebanon with no immediate prospect of filling the presidency, which has been vacant since the term of the Hezbollah-allied President Michel Aoun ended in October.

Hezbollah, which says it is exercising its constitutional rights, is backing its close Christian ally Frangieh, a friend of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad who strongly supports Hezbollah’s right to possess weapons.

Hezbollah, which is designated as a terrorist group by the United States, has unleashed fierce rhetoric in their campaign against Azour, describing him as a candidate of confrontation.

Lebanon’s Shi’ite Mufti Sheikh Ahmad Qabalan dialled up the attacks on Sunday against Azour without naming him, accusing him of being backed by Israel and saying “a president with an American stamp will not be allowed”.

Azour, 57, has said he wants to build national unity and implement reforms in a country mired in its deepest crisis since its 1975-90 civil war.

Azour served as finance minister from 2005 to 2008, a period of political conflict pitting a government backed by the West and Saudi Arabia against opponents aligned with Damascus and led by Hezbollah.

He also enjoyed the support of Lebanon’s main Druze faction, the Progressive Socialist Party led by the Jumblatt family, and some Sunni lawmakers. – Rappler.com

The Israeli military said an Egyptian cop shot and killed two soldiers while they secured a military post at the Egyptian border early on Saturday. It said the officer and a third Israeli soldier were killed in a confrontation inside Israeli territory hours later.

Egypt’s military said that the three Israeli and one Egyptian security personnel had been killed in an exchange of fire as the Egyptian security officer chased smugglers across the frontier.

Egyptian and Israeli officials are probing the circumstances of the incident in full cooperation, the Israeli military and two Egyptian security sources said.

The Israeli military said it was unclear how the Egyptian officer crossed the border fence and soldiers were searching the area to rule out additional assailants.

An Israeli military spokesperson said two soldiers had been shot while on duty in a relatively desolate area in the Negev desert along the Egypt border early on Saturday. Their bodies were found later, when they didn’t answer the radio, the spokesperson added.

Once the military understood the incident was ongoing, soldiers identified an infiltration into Israeli territory, leading to a gunfight in which the assailant, an Egyptian cop, and the third Israeli soldier were killed, it said.

Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said he conducted a situational assessment with the chief of staff and that the military “will investigate the event as required.”

Egypt in 1979 became the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel.

The Israeli military spokesperson said that while drug smuggling attempts in the area were frequent, the last known infiltration into Israel happened some 10 years ago. – Rappler.com

ANKARA, Turkey – President Recep Tayyip Erdogan extended his two decades in power in elections on Sunday, May 28, winning a mandate to pursue increasingly authoritarian policies which have polarized Turkey and strengthened its position as a regional military power.

His challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, called it “the most unfair election in years” but did not dispute the outcome.

Official results showed Kilicdaroglu won 47.9% of the votes to Erdogan’s 52.1%, pointing to a deeply divided nation.

The election had been seen as one of the most consequential yet for Turkey, with the opposition believing it had a strong chance of unseating Erdogan and reversing his policies after his popularity was hit by a cost-of-living crisis.

Instead, victory reinforced his image of invincibility, after he had already redrawn domestic, economic, security and foreign policy in the NATO member country of 85 million people.

The prospect of five more years of his rule was a major blow to opponents who accused him of undermining democracy as he amassed ever more power – a charge he denies.

In a victory speech in Ankara, Erdogan pledged to leave all disputes behind and unite behind national values and dreams but then switched gears, lashing out at the opposition and accusing Kilicdaroglu of siding with terrorists without providing evidence.

He said releasing former pro-Kurdish party leader Selahattin Demirtas, whom he branded a “terrorist,” would not be possible under his governance.

Erdogan said inflation was Turkey’s most urgent issue.

Kilicdaroglu’s defeat will likely be mourned by Turkey’s NATO allies which have been alarmed by Erdogan’s ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who congratulated his “dear friend” on his victory.

US President Joe Biden wrote on Twitter: “I look forward to continuing to work together as NATO Allies on bilateral issues and shared global challenges.”

US relations with Turkey have been impeded by Erdogan’s objection to Sweden joining NATO as well as Ankara’s close relationship with Moscow and differences over Syria.

‘The only winner today is Turkey,’ Erdogan says

Addressing jubilant supporters earlier from atop a bus in Istanbul, Erdogan, 69, said “the only winner today is Turkey”. “I thank every single one of our people who once again gave us the responsibility to govern the country five more years,” he said.

Erdogan’s victory extends his tenure as the longest-serving leader since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk established modern Turkey from the ruins of the Ottoman Empire a century ago – a politically potent anniversary to be marked in October with Erdogan in charge.

Erdogan, head of the Islamist-rooted AK Party, appealed to voters with nationalist and conservative rhetoric during a divisive campaign that deflected attention from deep economic troubles.

In his victory speech, he attacked the opposition again, calling them pro-LGBT.

Kilicdaroglu, who had promised to set the country on a more democratic and collaborative path, said the vote showed people’s will to change an authoritarian government. “All the means of the state were laid at the feet of one man,” he said.

‘Sad and disappointed’

Erdogan supporters, who gathered outside his Istanbul residence, chanted Allahu Akbar, or God is Greatest.

“I expect everything to become better,” said Nisa, 28, a headscarved woman wearing a headband with Erdogan’s name.

Another Erdogan supporter said Turkey would get stronger with him in office for five more years.

“There are issues, problems in every country around the world, in European countries as well … With strong leadership we will overcome Turkey’s problems as well,” said the supporter who gave his name as Mert, 39, as he celebrated with his son.

Bugra Oztug, 24, who voted for Kilicdaroglu, blamed the opposition for failing to change. “I feel sad and disappointed but I am not hopeless. I still think there are people who can see the realities and truth,” Oztug said.

Erdogan’s performance has wrong-footed opponents who thought voters would punish him over the state’s initially slow response to devastating earthquakes in February, in which more than 50,000 people died.

But in the first round of voting on May 14, which included parliamentary elections, his AK Party emerged top in 10 of the 11 provinces hit by the earthquakes, helping it to secure a parliamentary majority along with its allies.

Fears for liberties

French President Emmanuel Macron offered congratulations, saying France and Turkey had “huge challenges to face together”.

The presidents of Iran, Israel, and the Saudi king were among leaders to congratulate him in the Middle East, where Erdogan has asserted Turkish influence, at times with military power. Erdogan, who was for years at odds with numerous governments in the region, has taken a more conciliatory stance in recent years.

Emre Erdogan, a political science professor at Istanbul’s Bilgi University, attributed Erdogan’s success to his supporters’ belief “in his ability to solve problems, even though he created many of them”.

Erdogan had also maintained the support of conservative voters who long felt marginalised. “This era will be characterized by a decline in political and civil liberties, polarization, and cultural fights between two political tribes,” he said.

Erdogan appeared to have prevailed despite years of economic turmoil which critics blamed on unorthodox economic policies which the opposition had pledged to reverse.

Uncertainty about what an Erdogan win would mean for economic policy pushed the lira to record lows last week.

Reuters reported last week that there was disagreement within Erdogan’s government over whether to stick with what some called an unsustainable economic program or to abandon it.

Kilicdaroglu had promised to reset governance, restore human rights, and return independence to the courts and central bank after they were sidelined over the last decade. – Rappler.com

Erdogan, 69, defied opinion polls and came out ahead with an almost five-point lead over his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the first round on May 14. But he fell just short of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff, in a race with profound consequences for Turkey itself and global geopolitics.

His unexpectedly strong showing amid a deep cost of living crisis, and a win in parliamentary elections for a coalition of his conservative Islamist-rooted AK Party (AKP), the nationalist MHP and others, buoyed the veteran campaigner who says a vote for him is a vote for stability.

Voting started at 8 am (0500 GMT) and will finish at 5 pm (1400 GMT). The outcome is expected to start becoming clear by early evening local time. Polling stations were reportedly quieter in many places than two weeks ago, when turnout was 89%.

The election will decide not only who leads Turkey, a NATO-member country of 85 million, but also how it is governed, where its economy is headed after its currency plunged to one-tenth of its value against the dollar in a decade, and the shape of its foreign policy, which has seen Turkey anger the West by cultivating ties with Russia and Gulf states.

Erdogan supporters gathered at a school near his home on the Asian side of Istanbul where he voted around midday (0900 GMT), before shaking hands and talking with the crowd.

“With God’s permission he will win. The country has many problems but if anyone can solve them, he can,” said Nuran, who came to vote with her three-year-old daughter.

In Ankara, 32-year-old Gulcan Demiroz said she hoped the vote would bring change and that her friends would otherwise go abroad, as she was considering doing, for a better life.

“This country deserves better. We need a collective of minds, not a powerful, cold, distant man who rules single handedly,” said Gulcan, who works in the textile industry, after voting for Kilicdaroglu.

Kilicdaroglu, 74, voted in Ankara. He is the candidate of a six-party opposition alliance, and leads the Republican People’s Party (CHP) created by Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. His camp has struggled to regain momentum after trailing Erdogan in the first round.

The initial election showed larger-than-expected support for nationalism – a powerful force in Turkish politics which has been hardened by years of hostilities with Kurdish militants, an attempted coup in 2016 and the influx of millions of refugees from Syria since war began there in 2011.

Turkey is the world’s largest refugee host, with some 5 million migrants, of whom 3.3 million are Syrians, according to Interior Ministry data.

Third-place presidential candidate and hardline nationalist Sinan Ogan said he endorsed Erdogan based on a principle of “non-stop struggle (against) terrorism,” referring to pro-Kurdish groups. He achieved 5.17% of the vote.

Umit Ozdag, leader of the anti-immigrant Victory Party (ZP), announced a deal declaring ZP’s support for Kilicdaroglu, after the CHP leader said he would repatriate immigrants. The ZP won 2.2% of votes in the parliamentary election.

A survey by pollster Konda put support for Erdogan at 52.7% and Kilicdaroglu at 47.3% after distributing undecided voters. The survey was carried out on May 20-21, before Ogan and Ozdag revealed their endorsements.

Another key is how Turkey’s Kurds, at about a fifth of the population, will vote.

The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party endorsed Kilicdaroglu in the first round but, after his move to win nationalist votes, it did not explicitly name him and just urged voters to reject Erdogan’s “one-man regime”.

‘More Erdogan’

Turkey’s president commands fierce loyalty from pious Turks who once felt disenfranchised in secular Turkey and his political career has survived the failed coup and corruption scandals.

“Turkey has a longstanding democratic tradition and a longstanding nationalist tradition, and right now it’s clearly the nationalist one that’s winning out,” said Nicholas Danforth, Turkey historian and non-resident fellow at think tank ELIAMEP. “Erdogan has fused religious and national pride, offering voters an aggressive anti-elitism.”

“People know who he is and what his vision for the country is, and it seems a lot of them approve.”

Erdogan has taken control of most of Turkey’s institutions and sidelined liberals and critics. Human Rights Watch, in its World Report 2022, said Erdogan’s government has set back Turkey’s human rights record by decades.

In February, earthquakes killed more than 50,000 people and devastated southern Turkey and this had been expected to add to Erdogan’s challenge in the elections. However, his AKP remained dominant across that region on May 14.

But if Erdogan goes, it will be largely because Turks have seen their prosperity, equality and ability to meet basic needs decline, with inflation topping 85% last October.

Kilicdaroglu, a former civil servant, has pledged to roll back much of Erdogan’s changes to Turkish domestic, foreign and economic policies.

He would also revert to the parliamentary system of governance, from Erdogan’s executive presidential system, narrowly passed in a referendum in 2017. – Rappler.com

Already buoyed by a parliamentary majority won by his Islamist-rooted AK Party and its allies on May 14, Erdogan got another boost on Monday thanks to the endorsement of a nationalist politician who came third in the first round.

The election will decide not only who leads Turkey but also how it is governed, where its economy is headed, and the shape of its foreign policy. Kilicdaroglu, who received the endorsement of another far-right leader, is backed by a six-party alliance including his Republican People’s Party (CHP).

Modern Turkey’s longest-serving leader, Erdogan has championed religious piety and low interest rates at home while asserting Turkish influence in the region and loosening the NATO member’s ties with the West.

The election takes place three months after earthquakes in southeast Turkey killed more than 50,000 people.

What’s at stake for Turkey…

The most powerful leader since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk founded the modern Turkish republic a century ago, Erdogan and his AK Party have shifted Turkey away from Ataturk’s secular blueprint.

Erdogan has also centralized power around an executive presidency, based in a 1,000-room palace on the edge of Ankara, which sets policy on Turkey’s economic, security, domestic and international affairs.

Erdogan’s critics say his government has muzzled dissent, eroded rights, and brought the judicial system under its sway, a charge denied by officials who say it has protected citizens in the face of unique security threats including a 2016 coup attempt.

Economists say Erdogan’s calls for low rates sent inflation soaring to a 24-year high of 85% last year, and the lira slumping to one tenth of its value against the dollar over the last decade.

…And the rest of the world

Under Erdogan, Turkey has flexed military power in the Middle East and beyond, launching four incursions into Syria, waging an offensive against Kurdish militants inside Iraq ,and sending military support to Libya and Azerbaijan.

Turkey also saw a series of diplomatic clashes with regional powers Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel, as well as a stand-off with Greece and Cyprus over eastern Mediterranean maritime boundaries, until it changed tack two years ago and sought rapprochement with some of its rivals.

Erdogan’s purchase of Russian air defenses triggered US arms industry sanctions against Ankara, while his closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin led critics to question Turkey’s commitment to the NATO Western defense alliance. Ankara’s objections to NATO membership applications from Sweden and Finland have also raised tensions.

However, Turkey also brokered a deal for Ukrainian wheat exports, underlining the potential role Erdogan has staked in efforts to end the Ukraine war. It is not clear that a successor would enjoy the same profile he has created on the world stage, a point he has made in the election campaign.

What is the opposition promising

Two main opposition parties, the secularist CHP and center-right nationalist IYI Party, have allied themselves with four smaller parties under a platform that would reverse many of Erdogan’s signature policies.

They have pledged to restore independence to the central bank and reverse Erdogan’s unorthodox economic policies. They would also dismantle his executive presidency in favour of the previous parliamentary system, and send back Syrian refugees.

They also aim to improve relations with Western allies including the United States, and to return Turkey to the F-35 fighter jet program, from which it was blocked after buying Russian missile defenses.

Analysts believe the policies promised by the opposition could spur foreign investment.

Erdogan supported failed efforts to topple Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, while hosting at least 3.6 million Syrian refugees who have become increasingly unwelcome at a time of economic hardship in Turkey.

Seeking a runoff boost from nationalist voters, Kilicdaroglu has in the last two weeks sharpened his anti-immigrant tone and promised to repatriate migrants.

Just how close is the race

Kilicdaroglu got 44.9% in the first round compared to 49.5% for Erdogan, reflecting solid support despite a deep cost-of-living crisis and polls which had shown Kilicdaroglu in the lead. Pollsters later pointed to an unexpected surge in nationalist support at the ballot box to explain the result.

Erdogan has said a vote for him will ensure stability after his alliance secured a parliamentary majority.

Turkey’s four-decade conflict with the militant Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) has factored into the campaigning, along with the role of the mainstream Kurdish political parties.

While not part of the opposition alliance, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) fiercely opposes Erdogan after a crackdown on its members in recent years and has endorsed Kilicdaroglu.

Erdogan’s attacks against Kilicdaroglu have included accusations, without evidence, of him winning support from the PKK, which has waged an insurgency since the 1980s in which more than 40,000 people have been killed. Kilicdaroglu has denied the accusations. – Rappler.com

Ostracized by most Arab states following the crackdown on protests against his rule in 2011 and the ensuing civil war that killed 350,000 people, his government’s readmission to the bloc is a signal that Assad’s isolation is ending.

A beaming Assad was received by Deputy Governor of Mecca region Prince Badr bin Sultan and Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit as he arrived on Thursday, May 18, in Jeddah, the host city.

Assad, accompanied by several other Syrian officials, was then escorted to the reception hall of the Royal terminal where he had a brief exchange with Prince Badr and Aboul Gheit. Giant portraits of Saudi Arabia’s founder King Abdulaziz, King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman were hanging on the walls.

Assad is expected to address the summit later on Friday, along with other Arab leaders.

Ahead of the summit, the United States reiterated its opposition to normalisation of relations with Damascus.

“We do not believe that Syria should be (afforded) re-entry into the Arab League,” US State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel told reporters in Washington, adding sanctions should not be lifted.

“As it related to normalization, we don’t support normalization with the Assad regime, and we don’t support our partners doing so.”

But Patel added that “we have a number of shared objectives” such as bringing home Austin Tice, a former US Marine and journalist who was kidnapped in Syria in 2012.

A bipartisan group of US lawmakers introduced a bill last week intended to bar US recognition of Assad as Syria’s president and enhance Washington’s ability to impose sanctions.

It marks a remarkable turn of fortunes for the Syrian leader, who then-US president Donald Trump branded an “animal” for using chemical weapons in 2018 – an accusation he consistently denied.

Government forces have used chemical weapons more than two dozen times during Syria’s civil war, UN war crimes investigators said. Syria has repeatedly denied using chemical weapons.

Assad’s return to the Arab fold is part of a wider trend in the Middle East where adversaries have been taking steps to mend ties strained by years of conflict and rivalry.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others for years supported anti-Assad rebels. But Syria’s army, backed by Russia and Iran, regained control of most of the country years ago.

While Arab countries appear to have brought Assad in from the cold, they are still demanding that he curbs Syria’s flourishing drugs trade and that war refugees be allowed to return. – Rappler.com

Turks woke on Monday to see support for Erdogan just below the 50% threshold needed to avoid sending the NATO-member country to a second round of a presidential election viewed as passing judgement on his autocratic rule.

Pro-government media cheered the outcome, with Yeni Safak newspaper proclaiming “The people won,” referring to Erdogan’s People’s Alliance that appeared to have won a majority in parliament, potentially giving him a crucial edge in the presidential runoff.

“The winner has undoubtedly been our country,” Erdogan said in a speech to his cheering supporters at the headquarters of his ruling AK Party in the capital Ankara overnight.

Going into the election, the opposition had sensed its best chance yet of unseating Erdogan, encouraged by polls showing him trailing his main challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu. But the results suggested Erdogan and his Islamist-rooted AK Party had been able to rally conservative voters despite a cost-of-living crisis.

Kilicdaroglu, head of a six-party alliance, vowed to prevail in the runoff and accused Erdogan’s party of interfering with the counting and reporting of results, calling on his supporters in the country of 84 million to be patient.

Pivotal elections

The prospect of Erdogan’s rule entering a third decade will upset civil rights activists campaigning for reforms to undo the damage they say he has done to Turkey’s democracy.

Thousands of political prisoners and activists could be released if the opposition prevails.

Turkey’s main share index tumbled 6.4% in pre-market trading, with the banking index down 9.5%.

The election has been closely watched in Europe, Washington, Moscow, and across the region, where Erdogan has asserted Turkish power while strengthening ties to Russia and putting strain on Ankara’s traditional alliance with the United States.

Erdogan is one of President Vladimir Putin’s main allies and his strong showing is likely to encourage the Kremlin but unnerve the Biden administration, as well as many European and Middle Eastern leaders who had troubled relations with Erdogan.

With 99% of ballot boxes counted, Erdogan led with 49.35 of votes and Kilicdaroglu on 45.0%, according to state-owned news agency Anadolu. Election turnout was a very high 88.8%.

A third candidate, the nationalist Sinan Ogan took some 5.2% of the vote and analysts said he could play a “kingmaker” role in the runoff if he decides to endorse one of the two.

Galip Dalay, associate fellow at Chatham House, said Erdogan’s ruling alliance would go into the second round “with numeric and psychological advantages.”

“During the campaign period ahead of the runoff, President Erdogan is likely to emphasise stability as he already retains the majority in the parliament,” Dalay said.

Subdued opposition

Turkey’s longest-serving leader has turned the country into a global player, transforming it with huge infrastructure projects such has airports and bridges and building a defense industry attracting many foreign customers.

The political uncertainty was expected to weigh on financial markets in the next two weeks. Overnight the lira hit a new two-month low against the dollar, weakening to 19.70 before edging back to 19.645 by 0600 GMT.

The cost of insuring against Turkey defaulting on its sovereign debts surged to a six-month high, jumping 105 basis points (bps) from Friday’s levels to 597 bps, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The mood at the opposition party’s headquarters had been subdued overnight as the votes were counted. Before the election, opinion polls had put Kilicdaroglu slightly ahead, with two polls on Friday showing him above the 50% threshold.

The opposition had expected to benefit from voter anger at economic woes after an unorthodox policy of low interest rates triggered a lira crisis and soaring inflation. A slow response government response to the earthquake that killed 50,000 people in February had also been expected to influence voters.

Kilicdaroglu has pledged to revive democracy after years of state repression, return to orthodox economic policies, empower institutions that lost autonomy under Erdogan and rebuild frail ties with the West.

Critics fear Erdogan will govern ever more autocratically if he wins another term. The 69-year-old president, a veteran of a dozen election victories, says he respects democracy. – Rappler.com

Neither Erdogan nor Kilicdaroglu cleared the 50% threshold needed to avoid a second round, to be held on May 28, in an election seen as a verdict on Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian path.

The presidential vote will decide not only who leads Turkey but also whether it reverts to a more secular, democratic path, how it will handle its severe cost of living crisis, and manage key relations with Russia, the Middle East and the West.

Kilicdaroglu, who said he would prevail in the runoff, urged his supporters to be patient and accused Erdogan’s party of interfering with the counting and reporting of results.

But Erdogan performed better than pre-election polls had predicted, and he appeared in a confident and combative mood as he addressed his supporters.

“We are already ahead of our closest rival by 2.6 million votes. We expect this figure to increase with official results,” Erdogan said.

With almost 97% of ballot boxes counted, Erdogan led with 49.39% of votes and Kilicdaroglu had 44.92%, according to state-owned news agency Anadolu. Turkey’s High Election Board gave Erdogan 49.49% with 91.93% of ballot boxes counted.

Thousands of Erdogan voters converged on the party’s headquarters in Ankara, blasting party songs from loudspeakers and waving flags. Some danced in the street.

“We know it is not exactly a celebration yet but we hope we will soon celebrate his victory. Erdogan is the best leader we had for this country and we love him,” said Yalcin Yildrim, 39, who owns a textile factory.

Erdogan has edge

The results reflected deep polarization in a country at a political crossroads. The vote was set to hand Erdogan’s ruling alliance a majority in parliament, giving him a potential edge heading into the runoff.

Opinion polls before the election had pointed to a very tight race but gave Kilicdaroglu, who heads a six-party alliance, a slight lead. Two polls on Friday showed him above the 50% threshold.

The country of 85 million people – already struggling with soaring inflation – now faces two weeks of uncertainty that could rattle markets, with analysts expecting gyrations in the local currency and stock market.

“The next two weeks will probably be the longest two weeks in Turkey’s history and a lot will happen. I would expect a significant crash in the Istanbul stock exchange and lots of fluctuations in the currency,” said Hakan Akbas, managing director of Strategic Advisory Services, a consultancy.

“Erdogan will have an advantage in a second vote after his alliance did far better than the opposition’s alliance,” he added.

A third nationalist presidential candidate, Sinan Ogan, stood at 5.3% of the vote. He could be a “kingmaker” in the runoff depending on which candidate he endorses, analysts said.

The opposition said Erdogan’s party was delaying full results from emerging by lodging objections, while authorities were publishing results in an order that artificially boosted Erdogan’s tally.

Kilicdaroglu, in an earlier appearance, said that Erdogan’s party was “destroying the will of Turkey” by objecting to the counts of more than 1,000 ballot boxes. “You cannot prevent what will happen with objections. We will never let this become a fait accompli,” he said.

But the mood at the opposition party’s headquarters, where Kilicdaroglu expected victory, was subdued as the votes were counted. His supporters waved flags of Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and beat drums.

Key Putin ally

The choice of Turkey’s next president is one of the most consequential political decisions in the country’s 100-year history and will reverberate well beyond Turkey’s borders.

A victory for Erdogan, one of President Vladimir Putin’s most important allies, will likely cheer the Kremlin but unnerve the Biden administration, as well as many European and Middle Eastern leaders who had troubled relations with Erdogan.

Turkey’s longest-serving leader has turned the NATO member and Europe’s second-largest country into a global player, modernized it through megaprojects such as new bridges and airports and built an arms industry sought by foreign states.

But his volatile economic policy of low interest rates, which set off a spiraling cost of living crisis and inflation, left him prey to voters’ anger. His government’s slow response to a devastating earthquake in southeast Turkey that killed 50,000 people earlier this year added to voters’ dismay.

Parliamentary majority

Kilicdaroglu has pledged to revive democracy after years of state repression, return to orthodox economic policies, empower institutions that lost autonomy under Erdogan and rebuild frail ties with the West.

Thousands of political prisoners and activists could be released if the opposition prevails.

Critics fear Erdogan will govern ever more autocratically if he wins another term. The 69-year-old president, a veteran of a dozen election victories, says he respects democracy.

In the parliamentary vote, the People’s Alliance of Erdogan’s Islamist-rooted AKP, the nationalist MHP and others fared better than expected and were headed for a majority. – Rappler.com

Fakioglu, who has been staying with his son in Istanbul since leaving his home in the Antakya region, remembers the earthquake every day – the moment he ran from his apartment with his wife and daughter as walls banged and cracked.

Fakioglu, 56, declined to say how he voted on Sunday in an election that is seen as the toughest political test yet for President Tayyip Erdogan. But as he prepared to cast his ballot, he voiced criticism of the state’s slow response to the disaster in which more than 50,000 people were killed.

Alongside a spiraling cost-of-living crisis, the February 6 earthquake and its aftermath has loomed over the campaign. Opinion polls have shown the opposition narrowly ahead of Erdogan, though there is little evidence that the earthquake has changed how people will vote in the presidential and parliamentary election.

Fakioglu is one of hundreds of thousands of people made homeless by the earthquake, many of whom returned home to vote on Sunday.

“I will only say this, everybody should vote with their conscience at the ballot box. We were forgotten, all of us, on that day, the second day even on the third day. Not only in Antakya, but people were forgotten in all those cities,” Fakioglu said, referring to the late arrival of help.

“People all around Turkey should keep this in mind when voting.”

Critics and earthquake survivors have accused Erdogan’s government of both a slow response and lax enforcement of building rules – failures they said cost lives.

Erdogan said in the days after the quake that the response of the search and rescue teams was not as fast as it could have been. The government said the majority of the collapsed buildings were built before new construction regulations were in place.

Helping people travel home

Political parties – including Erdogan’s AK Party – municipalities, and non-governmental organisations have been helping voters to get home in order to cast their ballots from their old registered addresses, providing free transportation.

Oy ve Otesi, an NGO promoting democratic participation, said a scheme it backed to help voters get home for election day had provided 30,000 bus tickets since late April.

“People are interested, people want to go back to vote … Most of them didn’t register new addresses so they will have to go back,” said Ertim Orkun, chairman of Oy ve Otesi.

He said around 1.5 million people had left the quake zone, only a portion of whom had registered new addresses for the purpose of voting.

Since some school buildings where voting would normally take place were damaged by the earthquake, polling stations have been set up in containers and tents in the affected area.

Boarding a bus from Istanbul to the province of Hatay in the southeast on Saturday, Kivanc Girisken said he would vote for Erdogan’s main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Girisken, 21, said he and his family had spent three weeks in a tent after the quake.

“This election was important even before the earthquake, but this made it even more crucial. When voting, we will take into account the pain we went through and the delay in the government response,” Girisken said. – Rappler.com

The presidential vote will decide not only who leads Turkey, a NATO-member country of 85 million, but also how it is governed, where its economy is headed amid a deep cost of living crisis, and the shape of its foreign policy.

Opinion polls have given Erdogan’s main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who heads a six-party alliance, a slight lead, with two polls on Friday showing him above the 50% threshold needed to win outright. If neither wins more than 50% of the vote on Sunday, a runoff will be held on May 28.

Polling stations officially closed at 5 pm (1400 GMT) after nine hours of voting. Reporting of results before 9 pm is not permitted, so the first indications of the outcome may not emerge until late evening. However, election authorities may decide to allow media to report on results earlier.

With Erdogan slightly trailing his rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the elections are being intently watched in Western capitals, the Middle East, NATO and Moscow.

A defeat for Erdogan, one of President Vladimir Putin’s most important allies, will likely unnerve the Kremlin but comfort the Biden administration, as well as many European and Middle Eastern leaders who had troubled relations with Erdogan.

Turkey’s longest-serving leader has turned the NATO member and Europe’s second largest country into a global player, modernized it through megaprojects such as new bridges, hospitals and airports, and built a military industry sought by foreign states.

But his volatile economic policy of low interest rates, which set off a spiralling cost of living crisis and inflation, left him prey to voters’ anger. His government’s slow response to a devastating earthquake in southeast Turkey that killed 50,000 people added to voters’ dismay.

Kilicdaroglu has pledged to set Turkey on a new course by reviving democracy after years of state repression, returning to orthodox economic policies, empowering institutions who lost autonomy under Erdogan’s tight grasp and rebuilding frail ties with the West.

Thousands of political prisoners and activists, including high level names such as Kurdish leader Selahattin Demirtas and philantropist Osman Kavala, could be released if the opposition prevails.

Polarized politics

“I see these elections as a choice between democracy and dictatorship,” said Ahmet Kalkan, 64, as he voted in Istanbul for Kilicdaroglu, echoing critics who fear Erdogan will govern ever more autocratically if he wins.

“I chose democracy and I hope that my country chooses democracy,” said Kalkan, a retired health sector worker.

Erdogan, 69 and a veteran of a dozen election victories, says he respects democracy and denies being a dictator.

Illustrating how the president still commands support, Mehmet Akif Kahraman, also voting in Istanbul, said Erdogan still represented the future even after two decades in power.

“God willing, Turkey will be a world leader,” he said.

Voters elsewhere in the country also expressed views for and against Erdogan, a polarising figure hoping to extend his tenure as the longest-serving ruler since modern Turkey was established 100 years ago.

Erdogan, voting in Istanbul, shook the hands of election officials and spoke to a TV reporter in the polling station.

“We pray to God for a better future for our country, nation and Turkish democracy,” he said. He later travelled to Ankara, despite having said he would monitor the election from Istanbul.

A smiling Kilicdaroglu, 74, voted in Ankara and emerged to applause from the waiting crowd.

“I offer my most sincere love and respect to all my citizens who are going to the ballot box and voting. We all miss democracy so much,” he told the assembled media.

The parliamentary vote is a tight race between the People’s Alliance comprising Erdogan’s Islamist-rooted AK Party (AKP) and the nationalist MHP and others, and Kilicdaroglu’s Nation Alliance formed of six opposition parties, including his secularist Republican People’s Party (CHP), established by Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.

Voting was being monitored by a mission from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which said it would deliver a preliminary statement on Monday on its findings.

Change or continuity

Erdogan, a powerful orator and master campaigner, has pulled out all the stops on the campaign trail. He commands fierce loyalty from pious Turks who once felt disenfranchised in secular Turkey and his political career has survived an attempted coup in 2016, and numerous corruption scandals.

However, if Turks do oust Erdogan it will be largely because they saw their prosperity and ability to meet basic needs decline, with inflation that topped 85% in Oct. 2022 and a collapse in the lira currency.

Kilicdaroglu says he would seek to return Turkey to the parliamentary system of governance, from Erdogan’s executive presidential system passed in a referendum in 2017. He has also promised to restore the independence of a judiciary that critics say Erdogan has used to crack down on dissent.

Erdogan has taken tight control of most of Turkey’s institutions and sidelined liberals and critics. Human Rights Watch, in its World Report 2022, said Erdogan’s government has set back Turkey’s human rights record by decades.

Kurdish voters, who account for 15-20% of the electorate, will play a vital role, with the Nation Alliance unlikely to attain a parliamentary majority by itself.

The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) is not part of the main opposition alliance but fiercely opposes Erdogan after a crackdown on its members in recent years. – Rappler.com